Election latest: Impact of D-Day fallout seen in fresh poll - as Lib Dems launch first manifesto of campaign (2024)

Following the Liberal Democrats manifesto launch, which the party claimed is "fully-costed", our economics and data editor Ed Conway has been picking through it to see if everything adds up.

He'll be doing the same for all the manifestos as they come out.

Check out what he had to say below:

You can never have enough polls during an election.

JL Partners have today published their latest poll of 2,004 people, asking how they expect to vote.

This took place after D-Day last week, when Rishi Sunak left the commemorations in Normandy early, sparking a significant backlash.

The results show Labour maintaining a 17-point lead - but the party dropped two points compared to the pollster's last survey, which was before the D-Day anniversary event.

The gap stayed the same as the Tories also dropped two points.

The full results are as follows, with the change from the previous period in brackets.

• LAB: 41% (-2)
• CON: 24% (-2)
• REF: 15% (+3)
• LDEM: 11% (-)
• GRN: 5% (+2)

We reported over the weekend about how a Tory candidate had told our deputy political editor Sam Coates that party chairman Richard Holden was a "disgrace to the Conservative Party".

A reminder that he's been accused of a stitch-up by choosing to stand in a safe seat in Essex - 300 miles away from his former constituency in the North East that looks more under threat.

Now, there's more hostile reaction.

A Tory who's been a candidate before and hoped to be again this time texted Sky News saying Mr Holden is an "imbecile" and there was a "great stitch-up of seats".

"I, too, didn't get a seat because ultimately Rishi shoved all his mates into the best ones, while candidates like me didn't hear a peep from CCHQ despite being told to fill in endless application forms for the retirement seats at the last minute," they added.

"Thankfully, the Conservative ship is sinking and couldn't come soon enough."

They said the affair shows the PM's judgement is "way off", adding: "It's quite frankly embarrassing the party allowed this to happen."

A candidate who missed out in a three-way selection added it was "unbelievable" Mr Holden hadn't prepared for questions about his selection in Basildon and Billericay, adding: "Can't wait for it all to be over so we can get rid of these useless people."

You can read more on the row here:

Sir Keir Starmer and his shadow education secretary Bridget Phillipson were at a school today to launch one of Labour's key retail offers of the campaign - 100,000 new nursery places.

By repurposing 3,000 "surplus" primary school classrooms, particularly in disadvantaged areas where childcare demand is not being met, they say it will help parents into work, and ease children into life at school.

'We will deliver'

Speaking to Sky News, Sir Keir clarified for the first time that the scheme announced by Jeremy Hunt to expand the 30 "free" childcare hours to all pre-school children from age nine months would be honoured by Labour.

Asked if he would deliver it, he said: "Yes, we will deliver. Our plan is actually better than the government's... they haven't planned for it, and therefore they haven't got the spaces for it.

"But of course we want to complete on the government's plan, but actually do it in a way that's planned and deliverable."

This is a change of tune, after Labour had claimed they would pursue a different system. Ms Phillipson called it a "shoddy plan" back in February.

This expansion has been rolled out only in part - with nine-month-olds due to receive 15 subsidised hours from September, in what the childcare sector says will be an enormous challenge to fund and staff.

Nurseries have been warning they will be driven out of business, which could exacerbate pressures.

Delivering it will be an enormous staffing challenge - with the government's figures showing 40,000 extra people would be needed.

Getting it right could be key to economic growth and closing the attainment gap between the most and least advantaged children.

But the workforce and infrastructure needed to make it happen will require major investment.

Nigel Farage is asked what he makes of suggestions over the weekend that Rishi Sunak was considering resigning because of the reaction to him leaving D-Day commemorations last week.

The prime minister has today insisted it didn't cross his mind.

Mr Farage says he'd be "very surprised" if the PM does quit before the election on 5 July, but says if we weren't in the midst of a campaign "he would have resigned already".

Were he to quit, the Tories' poll ratings would fall even lower, he says.

Asked if he was willing to work with Tories like Suella Braverman, Robert Jenrick or Kemi Badenoch, Mr Farage says if he establishes an "electoral beach head" in the Commons by winning in Clacton for Reform, he will welcome any Conservatives who want to join him.

The other candidates in Clacton are:

• Matthew Bensilum, Lib Dems;
• Craig Jamieson, Climate Party;
• Tony Mack, independent;
• Natasha Osben, Greens;
• Jovan Owusu-Nepaul, Labour;
• Tasos Papanastasiou, Heritage Party;
• Andrew Pemberton, UKIP;
• Giles Watling, Conservatives.

Sky political correspondent Gurpreet Narwan asks the Reform leadership more about their policy to change how the Bank of England pays interest on the debt it holds.

As a reminder - this is the money, about £800bn worth, that the Bank has printed since 2008 to keep the UK economy healthy by lending it to the government.

In late 2022, it started to sell the debt off, but this process will take years to complete.

Nigel Farage and Richard Tice want to see an end to interest being paid on the figure, as they say it means billions is going from the taxpayer to high street banks through the Bank of England.

Mr Farage singles out Rishi Sunak for his acts as chancellor during COVID, in which the Bank lent £400bn.

He says the then-chancellor should have locked in the interest rate at which the money was borrowed by the government. The base rate stood at 0.1% at the time, and is now above 5%.

He says it was "financial mismanagement on a gargantuan scale" and is costing tens of billions.

The pair say they want to see the Bank pay zero interest on the debts.

'Trussonomics on steroids'

Asked if Reform's plans equate to "Trussonomics on steroids", with the former prime minister's tax cut agenda having caused economic chaos which led to her resignation, Mr Tice and Mr Farage said they will be laying out more of their policies next Monday.

But they say they will not call it a manifesto as people equate that to mean "lies".

Richard Tice, the Reform UK chairman, is giving a speech in London about his party's economic policy.

He says he wants to get more people into work, as it will reduce the burden on the exchequer.

People in the UK are "literally suffocating" because of tax, he says.

His party wants to raise the threshold for paying income tax to £20,000, up from which he says will cost £40bn.

Mr Tice claims it will be paid for by overhauling the Bank of England.

He specifically singles out the interest paid on the £800bn of debt held by the Bank following quantitative easing.

The interest payments on this debt have soared since the base rate went up as the Bank tries to return inflation to 2%.

'Great British tax cut'

It is money taken off the taxpayer and paid on "institutions" in the city, among others.

The money would be used for a "great British tax cut".

Mr Tice says he also wants to raise the VAT threshold for small businesses to £150,000 from £90,000.

Other pledges include abolishing IR35, or off-payroll working, saying we can't "tax our way out of a crisis".

Party leader Nigel Farage takes over, and says the government may have difficulties issuing gilts if the current system of borrowing continues.

The Liberal Democrats have wrapped up their manifesto launch event, and you can scroll back through the Politics Hub to read more on their announcements and leader Sir Ed Davey's answers to the media.

We'll have more reaction and analysis to the manifesto throughout the afternoon.

Shortly we'll have live coverage of a Reform UK event with party leader Nigel Farage, where he and predecessor Richard Tice will be outlining their economic policies.

Stay with us for updates.

Speaking to broadcasters at the Dog and Bacon pub in Horsham, West Sussex, Mr Sunak is asked if contemplated stepping aside.

It is the first time he has answered on-camera questions since Friday, when he apologised for leaving last week's D-Day commemorations at Normandy before they had finished.

He says: "No, of course not.

"I'm energised about the vision that we're putting forward for the country.

"This campaign is not even halfway through yet, and I'm finding an enormous amount of support for the policies that we're putting on the table."

He says lots of people are saying the election is a "foregone conclusion" - and have been saying so since he took over.

But the PM says he is "not going to stop going - I'm not going to stop fighting for people's votes".